Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. This paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).

时间序列与许多其他机器学习领域一样，从统计学到深度学习进行了过渡。尽管随着模型在许多公开可用的数据集中的更新时，似乎精度一直在提高，但通常只会将比例尺增加几倍，以换取准确性的略有差异。通过该实验，我们指出了不同的思维方式，时间序列，尤其是长期预测，可能与其他领域有所不同。不必使用广泛而复杂的模型来掌握时间序列的所有方面，而是使用纯模型来掌握时间序列的核心规则。有了这个简单但有效的想法，我们创建了Purets，这是一个具有三个纯线性层的网络，在80％的长序列预测任务中实现了最新的，同时几乎是最轻的模型，并且运行速度最快。在此基础上，我们讨论了纯线性层在现象和本质中的潜力。理解核心法律的能力有助于长距离预测的高精度，并且合理的波动可以防止其扭曲多步预测中的曲线，例如主流深度学习模型，该模型总结为纯粹的线性神经网络，避免了范围 - 覆盖。最后，我们建议轻巧长时间时间序列任务的基本设计标准：输入和输出应尝试具有相同的维度，并且结构避免了碎片化和复杂的操作。

一组稀疏（例如六个）可穿戴的IMU提供的实时人类运动重建提供了一种非侵入性和经济的运动捕获方法。没有直接从IMU中获取位置信息的能力，最近的作品采用了数据驱动的方法，这些方法利用大型人类运动数据集解决了这一不确定的问题。尽管如此，挑战仍然存在，例如时间一致性，全球和关节动作的漂移以及各种地形上运动类型的各种覆盖范围。我们提出了一种同时估计全身运动的新方法，并实时从六个IMU传感器中产生合理的访问地形。我们的方法包含1.有条件的变压器解码器模型通过明确推理预测历史记录提供一致的预测，2。一个简单而通用的学习目标，称为“固定体点”（SBP），可以由变压器模型稳定地预测并通过分析例程使用要纠正关节和全球漂移，以及3.算法从嘈杂的SBP预测产生正则地形高度图，进而可以纠正嘈杂的全球运动估计。我们对合成和真实的IMU数据以及实时实时演示进行了广泛的评估框架，并显示出优于强基线方法的性能。

TRISTRUCCUCTIONATIOPIC（TRISO）涂层颗粒燃料是强大的核燃料，并确定其可靠性对于先进的核技术的成功至关重要。然而，Triso失效概率很小，相关的计算模型很昂贵。我们使用耦合的主动学习，多尺度建模和子集模拟来估计使用几个1D和2D模型的Triso燃料的故障概率。通过多尺度建模，我们用来自两个低保真（LF）模型的信息融合，取代了昂贵的高保真（HF）模型评估。对于1D TRISO模型，我们考虑了三种多倍性建模策略：仅克里格，Kriging LF预测加克里格校正，深神经网络（DNN）LF预测加克里格校正。虽然这些多尺度建模策略的结果令人满意地比较了从两个LF模型中使用信息融合的策略，但是通常常常称为HF模型。接下来，对于2D Triso模型，我们考虑了两个多倍性建模策略：DNN LF预测加克里格校正（数据驱动）和1D Triso LF预测加克里格校正（基于物理学）。正如所预期的那样，基于物理的策略一直需要对HF模型的最少的呼叫。然而，由于DNN预测是瞬时的，数据驱动的策略具有较低的整体模拟时间，并且1D Triso模型需要不可忽略的模拟时间。

准确地对现实世界进行建模接触行为，对于现有的刚体物理模拟器而言，近刚毛的材料仍然是一个巨大的挑战。本文介绍了一个数据增强的接触模型，该模型将分析解决方案与观察到的数据结合在一起，以预测3D接触脉冲，这可能会导致刚体在各个方向上弹跳，滑动或旋转。我们的方法通过从观察到的数据中学习接触行为来增强标准库仑接触模型的表现力，同时尽可能保留基本的接触约束。例如，对分类器进行了训练，以近似静态摩擦和动态摩擦之间的过渡，而在碰撞过程中的非渗透约束在分析中执行。我们的方法计算整个刚体的触点的汇总效果，而不是分别预测每个接触点的接触力，而保持相同的模拟速度，而与接触点的数量增加了详细的几何形状。补充视频：https：//shorturl.at/eilwx关键字：物理模拟算法，动态学习，联系人学习

This paper focuses on designing efficient models with low parameters and FLOPs for dense predictions. Even though CNN-based lightweight methods have achieved stunning results after years of research, trading-off model accuracy and constrained resources still need further improvements. This work rethinks the essential unity of efficient Inverted Residual Block in MobileNetv2 and effective Transformer in ViT, inductively abstracting a general concept of Meta-Mobile Block, and we argue that the specific instantiation is very important to model performance though sharing the same framework. Motivated by this phenomenon, we deduce a simple yet efficient modern \textbf{I}nverted \textbf{R}esidual \textbf{M}obile \textbf{B}lock (iRMB) for mobile applications, which absorbs CNN-like efficiency to model short-distance dependency and Transformer-like dynamic modeling capability to learn long-distance interactions. Furthermore, we design a ResNet-like 4-phase \textbf{E}fficient \textbf{MO}del (EMO) based only on a series of iRMBs for dense applications. Massive experiments on ImageNet-1K, COCO2017, and ADE20K benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of our EMO over state-of-the-art methods, \eg, our EMO-1M/2M/5M achieve 71.5, 75.1, and 78.4 Top-1 that surpass \textbf{SoTA} CNN-/Transformer-based models, while trading-off the model accuracy and efficiency well.

Different people speak with diverse personalized speaking styles. Although existing one-shot talking head methods have made significant progress in lip sync, natural facial expressions, and stable head motions, they still cannot generate diverse speaking styles in the final talking head videos. To tackle this problem, we propose a one-shot style-controllable talking face generation framework. In a nutshell, we aim to attain a speaking style from an arbitrary reference speaking video and then drive the one-shot portrait to speak with the reference speaking style and another piece of audio. Specifically, we first develop a style encoder to extract dynamic facial motion patterns of a style reference video and then encode them into a style code. Afterward, we introduce a style-controllable decoder to synthesize stylized facial animations from the speech content and style code. In order to integrate the reference speaking style into generated videos, we design a style-aware adaptive transformer, which enables the encoded style code to adjust the weights of the feed-forward layers accordingly. Thanks to the style-aware adaptation mechanism, the reference speaking style can be better embedded into synthesized videos during decoding. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method is capable of generating talking head videos with diverse speaking styles from only one portrait image and an audio clip while achieving authentic visual effects. Project Page: https://github.com/FuxiVirtualHuman/styletalk.

We aim to bridge the gap between our common-sense few-sample human learning and large-data machine learning. We derive a theory of human-like few-shot learning from von-Neuman-Landauer's principle. modelling human learning is difficult as how people learn varies from one to another. Under commonly accepted definitions, we prove that all human or animal few-shot learning, and major models including Free Energy Principle and Bayesian Program Learning that model such learning, approximate our theory, under Church-Turing thesis. We find that deep generative model like variational autoencoder (VAE) can be used to approximate our theory and perform significantly better than baseline models including deep neural networks, for image recognition, low resource language processing, and character recognition.

Despite significant progress in object categorization, in recent years, a number of important challenges remain; mainly, the ability to learn from limited labeled data and to recognize object classes within large, potentially open, set of labels. Zero-shot learning is one way of addressing these challenges, but it has only been shown to work with limited sized class vocabularies and typically requires separation between supervised and unsupervised classes, allowing former to inform the latter but not vice versa. We propose the notion of vocabulary-informed learning to alleviate the above mentioned challenges and address problems of supervised, zero-shot, generalized zero-shot and open set recognition using a unified framework. Specifically, we propose a weighted maximum margin framework for semantic manifold-based recognition that incorporates distance constraints from (both supervised and unsupervised) vocabulary atoms. Distance constraints ensure that labeled samples are projected closer to their correct prototypes, in the embedding space, than to others. We illustrate that resulting model shows improvements in supervised, zero-shot, generalized zero-shot, and large open set recognition, with up to 310K class vocabulary on Animal with Attributes and ImageNet datasets.

We consider infinite horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with fast-slow structure, meaning that certain parts of the state space move "fast" (and in a sense, are more influential) while other parts transition more "slowly." Such structure is common in real-world problems where sequential decisions need to be made at high frequencies, yet information that varies at a slower timescale also influences the optimal policy. Examples include: (1) service allocation for a multi-class queue with (slowly varying) stochastic costs, (2) a restless multi-armed bandit with an environmental state, and (3) energy demand response, where both day-ahead and real-time prices play a role in the firm's revenue. Models that fully capture these problems often result in MDPs with large state spaces and large effective time horizons (due to frequent decisions), rendering them computationally intractable. We propose an approximate dynamic programming algorithmic framework based on the idea of "freezing" the slow states, solving a set of simpler finite-horizon MDPs (the lower-level MDPs), and applying value iteration (VI) to an auxiliary MDP that transitions on a slower timescale (the upper-level MDP). We also extend the technique to a function approximation setting, where a feature-based linear architecture is used. On the theoretical side, we analyze the regret incurred by each variant of our frozen-state approach. Finally, we give empirical evidence that the frozen-state approach generates effective policies using just a fraction of the computational cost, while illustrating that simply omitting slow states from the decision modeling is often not a viable heuristic.